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HomeMy WebLinkAbout5. Demographics Presentation ~ .. SHAKOPEE INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT # 720 ENl,lOLLMENT PROJECTIONS HAZEL REINHARDT CONSULTING SERVICES June 11, 2003 . . SHAKOPEE INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT # 720 Introducti~n The Shakopee School District encompasses all or part of three cities and three townships in Scott County, one of the fastest growing counties in the U.S. Eighty-five (85) percent of the district's hoqseholds are in the city of Shakopee. Ten percent of district households are in the three townships with the remaining 5 percent in the cities of Savage and Prior Lake. Owner- occupied units are the norm, however, more than one-fifth of the households in Shakopee City are renter-occupied. Hou~old growth of more than 70 percent in the 1990s indicates that the Shakopee district serves a developing area. Projected residential development in this decade exceeds the growth of the 1990s, indicating the area is still in the developing phase. This ~ort's purpose is twofold. It examines district population characteristics and current enrollment dynamics, which is important, because school enrollment projections use current enrollment as their baseline. The report also contains a set of public school K-12 enrollment projections. 1 f' . 2000 Censf.lS Results The 2000 census data provide clues about future school enrollment. For example, the census shows that nearly every minor civil division in the Shakopee School District has more 0-4 year-olds tha,n-5-9 year-olds. The exceptions to this pattern are Louisville and Sand Creek Townships. While these exceptions are interesting, the characteristics of Shakopee City should be the focus because the city is 85 percent of the district's households. District-wide, more 0-4 year- olds compared to 5-9 year-olds indicates that kindergarten classes will be larger in the next few years than they were in the recent past. Kindergarten class size will get a boost from residential developmenf as well. (See p. 24) . Another indicator offuture kindergarten class size is the age distribution of childbearing- age women. Shakopee City has a high proportion of its childbearing-age females in the early stages of chijdbearing, Le., 20-29 years-old. This age distribution points to an increase in births in the school dl&trict and therefore in kindergarten, even if rapid residential development does not occur in the next couple of years. Again, with development, kindergarten classes are likely to increase for the foreseeable future. Shak9Pee City is different from Savage, where more women are concentrated in the mid years of childbearing and Prior Lake, where the largest female cohort is 35-39 years-old and the 40-44 year-old cohort is also large. With its female population weighted more toward the later stages of childbearing, Prior Lake is more dependent on migration for preschool children than Shakopee. Jv-the townships, the female childbearing population follows the state pattern more closely by lep.ning toward the later years of childbearing. (See p. 25) Age data show that the district's population is very young. In the district's core-Shakopee City, Jackson Township and Louisville Township-about 28 percent of the population is.under the age of 18. However, Shakopee and Sand Creek Township have the lowest percentages of youth in the district. The percentage of population age 65 and over is very 2 .. . small and si~cantly below the state level. Again, Shakopee and Sand Creek Township have the highest percentage of senior citizens with 7.4 and 9.1 percent respectively. Median age confirms the district's youthfulness. However, median age indicates that the age of adults between 18 and 64 years of age varies by minor civil division. For example, Shakopee's median age is among the lowest in th~Aistrict, yet Shakopee has one of the lowest percentages of youth population. This seeming contradiction is explained by Shakopee's larger percentage of"young adults, which is evident in the female population. (See p. 26) Whily-household characteristics are not as directly related to school enrollment, they play an important role in helping assess the future size of households and the number of children per household in the future. In 2000, Shakopee City, Jackson Township and Prior Lake had fewer than three p~rsons per household, although household size was greater than the state average. But Shakop~e City's households have fewer persons than the Scott County average. Just more than 40 percent of district households contain at least one person under the age of 18. This compares with 35 percent of all households statewide and 47 percent in Scott County. The percentage of households with persons 65 years or more is about two-thirds that of the state perpentage. (See p. 27) All the age and household characteristics examined here show Shakopee City, which is 85 percent of the Shakopee School District, as somewhat different from Scott County. This is an important faGt-that must be considered when making assumptions about the school district's future enrollplent based on Scott County data. Finally, census data provide a glimpse at recent movement. Residential development was especially robust just prior to the 2000 census, which resulted in a higher percentage of movers to the district t~ to Scott County or the state of Minnesota between 1999 and the census of2000. The percentage of movers to the distriCt from 1995-1998 is slightly higher than the Scott County average as well. Sand Creek Township is the most "settled" area in the district. (See p. 28) 3 It . Enrollment Dynamics School enrollments increase or decrease as population changes within a district's boundaries, with several population characteristics being very important. For example, the number of clftIdbearing-age women living in a district directly affects future kindergarten class size. A largC(r number of women of childbearing-age usually means there will be more births in the district and a smaller number of women usually means fewer children will be born. KindergarteI). .-class size is also affected by the number of preschool children moving into or out of a district. When students graduate from high school, they leave the enrollment system as a "loss." If Fall kindergarten is smaller than the previous spring's senior class, a district's enrollment will decrease in tl1e-future unless net in migration outpaces this "natural decrease." If Fall kindergarten is larger than the previous spring's graduating senior class, a district's enrollment is likely to increase. Shakopee is one of the few school districts in Minnesota where the incoming kindergarten class is significantly larger than the previous spring's senior class. Migr~ion (families with school-age children moving into or out of the district) also affects enrollment. fopulation "turnover" is ongoing in a mobile society and enrollment changes throughout the school year as families and children move. However, enrollment projections in this study are made for a single point in a year-Fall (about October 1). While population changes affect the total number of school-age children within a district, students and their families also have choices. Therefore, when public school enrollment dynamics are examined, choice must be considered as well as population dynamics. Choice includes traditional nonpublic schools, home schools, open enrollment and other special programs, charter schools, post secondary education options, and alternative schools or area learning centers. Other forms of choice include dropping out of high school and selecting an alternative to kindergarten. 4 ~ # Shakopee Public Schools Current EnrollmentlPast Trends In Fall 2002, Shakopee public schools enrolled 4,487 K-12 students compared to Fall 1993 when 2?815 students were enrolled. This represents an increase of 59 percent. During this ten-year period, year-over-year growth usually was 5 percent or more, with slower growth between Fall 1997 and Fall 1998 and Fall 1998 and Fall 1999. Then the district grew rapidly from 1999 to 2000, when enrollment increased by 9.8 percent. Enrollment growth has been less robust since, however, even the most recent year posted an increase of 5.6 percent. Slower growth coincides with the recession and the effects of September 11, 2001. The smaller enrollment increases are most likely temporary and larger increases are likely to return. Kindrrgarten class size increased 43 percent from Fall 1993 to Fall 2002, with the largest kindergarten class in Fall 2002 (357). Kindergarten growth has been steady with the exception of Fall 1994. Larger increases in kindergarten class size occurred between Fall 1996 and Fall 1997 and again between Fall 1998 and Fall 1999. Enrollment Change Year # % 1992-93 80 2.8 1993-94 146 5.0 1994.,.95 153 5.0 1995-96 165 5.2 1996-97 123 3.7 1997 -98 136 3.9 1998-99 355 9.8 1999-00 279 6.9 2000-01 238 5.6 The next table shows that net in migration is the primary reason enrollment increased, 5 ~ . although eve,darger kindergartens compared to the previous year's Grade 12 also contributed to growth. From Fall 2001 to Fall 2002, this "natural increase" exceeded net in migration. Of course, the larger kindergartens also may be the result of net in migration of preschool children. Today, most.Minnesota school districts have a smaller kindergarten than the previous year's senior class. Shakopee is one of the few exceptions to this statewide trend. . Components of Change Year Change Total Kover 12 Net Migration. 1993-94 80 7 73 1994-95 146 60 86 1995-96 153 58 95 1996-97 165 87 78 1997-98 123 34 89 1998-99 136 91 45 1999-00 355 125 230 2000-01 276 110 166 2001-02 238 126 112 The ~ migration columns in this table are actually implied net migration because the movement in.to and out of a district's territory cannot be separated from choice factors. Implied net migration is calculated by progressing Kindergarten students to Grade 1 in the following year, Grade 1 students to Grade 2, etc. Because the probability of death is so low among children, without movement, the same number of children should be in the next higher grade the following year. Therefore, ifthe number of students changes, migration is assumed to have occurred. A positive number indicates a net flow in and a negative number implies a net flow out. Inflows occur when students move into a district, transfer from nonpublic schools to public schools and non district residents attend distriCt public schools. Outflows occur when students move out of a district, public school students transfer to nonpublic schools, go to charter 6 " . schools, optfotPSEO and drop out of high school. Students who move into or out ofa district, but who never are enrolled in the district's public schools, are not reflected in implied net migration as calculated in this report. Net migration by grade for total enrollment is shown on page 30 and a summary of net migration appears on page 31. Historically, the elementary grades received the most net in migration. The largest grade-to-grade net in migration in Shakopee occurs between Grade 8 and Grade 9, when non public students enter the public schools. There is an outflow of high school students, hO]Never, the magnitude of the outflow is very erratic from year to year. The history of public school enrollment contains a couple of patterns with implications for the future. (See p. 29) In 2002, the elementary grades tend to be larger than the junior and senior high school ~-ades. Fall 2002 also marks the end of small Grade 12s. By spring 2005, the graduating senior class should be significantly larger and over this decade, the senior class will continue to grow. Sh~ee's kindergarten class has been increasing. This contrasts with most Minnesota school distri((ts. Statewide, kindergarten classes are getting smaller. Minnesota's largest kindergarten class in the 1990s enrolled in 1995 and was in Grade 7 in Fall 2002, making Grade 7 the largest gr,.ade in 2002. This class will graduate from high school in the spring of2008. After 2008, Minnqsota public school enrollment will decrease. In Shakopee, the largest grade is Grade 2 with 390 students. Grades 1,3,4 and 6 are comparable in size with about 365 students. Net in migration will increase the size of these grades and e~eh of these grades will also receive more students as nonpublic students enter the public schools. Therefore, total enrollment and high school enrollment will continue to grow. 7 " . Student Choices in the Shakopee School District Students and their families have more choices today than ever before. Traditional nonpublic schools have provided an option for many years. More recently, home schools have provided an9ther option. In addition, there are a number of public school options that are attracting more students. Open enrollment allows residents of one district to attend public schools in another district, the number of charter schools is growing, more students are transferring to Area Learning Centers and some students near post secondary institutions are choosing th~ post secondary education option. Competition for students is increasing. Nonpublic Enrollment Today-nonpublic enrollment falls into two categories-traditional schools and home schools. Traditional nonpublic schools, usually associated with religious institutions, have been present for many years. Home schools are a more recent and rapidly growing option. In 20.02, 651 district residents enrolled in traditional nonpublic schools. Traditional nonpublic scl1o01 enrollment increased 87 percent between 1993 and 2002, however, even with this increase, only 13 percent of district residents attend traditional nonpublic schools, which is modest for a metro area school district. (See p. 32) Becapse traditional nonpublic schools have physical plants, enrollment is limited by the number of classroom "seats" available in these schools. To invest in additional physical plant requires market analysis and the ability to raise capital. Homy-school enrollment is not constrained by building capacity. In 2002,82 district residents wet:e home schooled. Home-schooled students represent about 1.6 percent of district school-age residents. This percentage is average for the southern metro area but low compared to some other parts of Minnesota. 8 ~ ~ Base,P-on estimated school-age population in 2002, 14 percent of all school-age district residents, thpt is, 733 students were enrolled in nonpublic settings. (See p. 34) Nonpublic enrollment is just one reminder that growth in the number of school-age children in a school district does not automatically translate into public school enrollment. Open EnrolI,ment Open enrollment was created to allow families and students greater choice in public school education. Through open enrollment, students flow in and out of a district. (For this study, all nonresident students are treated as open enrollment students.) In the 1990s, the flow, both in and out, increase,d. Nearly 200 district residents attended a public school outside the district and about 300 nonresidents attended Shakopee public schools during the 2001-02 school year. This means that 7 percent of public school enrollment is the result of nonresident students. The district is a net importer of students and the net flow has been positive for the past ten years. While open enrollment data for 2002-03 are not available, the trend line suggests that the net inflow will continue. (See p. 33) Summary of District School-Age Residents Examining the period starting in 1993, the school-age population in the district increased 64 percent while public school enrollment increased 59 percent. Base9--on a school-age population estimate of5,149 in 2002, the Shakopee public schools capture 81.3 percent of the school-age population in the district. This compares to a capture rate of85.8 percent in 1993. Enrolment increases in nonpublic schools and various public school options are resulting in a lower capture rate. (See p. 34) 9 ... ~ Enrollment Projections Cohort Survival Method One method for projecting school enrollment is a traditional population projection methodology called cohort survival. Cohort survival, that is, aging the population or progressing it by grade, is fundamental to many population projection models. Because mortality is rare in the school-age population, the entire grade cohort should "survive" to the next grade. Once a grade (cohort) has been progressed (survived) to the next grade, net migration is added to or subtracted from that cohort. Therefore, over time a cohort will increase or decrease as a result of .migration as it moves through the grades. In school districts undergoing rapid residential development, net migration assumptions are very important. In more stable districts, net migration rates are less critical. Kindrr-garten class size is always a key variable in long-term school enrollment projections because this ~lass will be with the school system for many years. If a school census exists, it is a resource for short-term kindergarten projections. However, school censuses are notoriously inaccurate for children less than four years of age. For Ipng-term projections, the kindergarten class can be projected in several different ways. Births. can be projected if the female population of childbearing age is known. These births can then be survived to age five and adjustments for migration can be made. Employing past ratios of births to kindergarten is another method for projecting kindergarten classes. Deriving kindergartenJrom existing population projections of 5-year-olds is yet another method for projecting kindergarten. 10 .. Proiection Assumptions Trends affecting school enrollment statewide will affect Shakopee's schools to some degree, even.though Shakopee is different from most other Minnesota school districts. The current tren4s important to school enrollment are as follows: . The population in the U.S. and Minnesota is aging, resulting in a smaller proportion of childbearing-age women. An older population will reduce geo~aphic mobility as well. . Births have fallen since 1990 in the U.S. and in Minnesota, although births increased slightly from 1995 to 2000. Births decreased in 2001. An up tick in births was expected in the late 1990s because births were higher in 1968. (Today, the median age for women giving birth is about 30 years of age.) In the last 40 years, births were at their lowest in 1973. Therefore, between 2000 and 2006, the number of births is expected to decrease as these smaller cohorts of women are in their prime childbearing years. Children born between 2000 and 2008 will make up t~e kindergarten classes of 2005 to 2013. . Fertility is low. Fertility refers to the number of children born per woman throughout her childbearing years. In the U.S., ,White non-Hispanic and Black women have below replacement fertility. (Replacement is 2.11 children per female at the end of childbearing.) However, in Minnesota fertility among Black women is higher than the national rate. Hispanic women have much higher fertility, but the number of Hispanic women is sIl)all in Minnesota. In 2000,3.2 percent of Minnesota's childbearing- age women were Hispanic. 11 ~ . As tlJehistory of resident live births shows, births in Scott County continue to increase. Births increased dramatically starting in 1998, coinciding with-more rapid population growth. (See p. 35) . Mi~ota's K-12 enrollment peaked in 1999-2000 and will decline nearly 4 percent by 2008-09. This declme results from falling births as the baby bust generation (Gen X) moves into its prime childbearing years. Minnesota's largest high school class since 1978 will graduate in the spring of 200~. A comparable number of graduates will not occur again until about 2038. . Minnesota experienced a net in migration of families with children throughout the 1990s~ but in migration is slowing. . Min9,rity enrollment is rising. In Minnesota, minority students are now 16 percent of total enrollment. Minority students comprise- about 13 percent of Shakopee' s enrollment. . The ~ool-age population per household will decrease due to the larger number of Baby Boom households empty nesting compared to the smaller number of Generation X households with children at home. (Gen X is only 60 percent the size of the ~aby Boom.) Therefore, while the total number of households will increase, the percentage of households with persons 5-18-years-old will decrease. . Competition for K-12 students is likely to increase. Public schools compete for students. Open enrollment and nonpublic enrollment are growing. Alternatives to traditional high school are also attracting more students. 12 . ,; Kindergarten Assumptions Trends are more stable in large populations than in small populations, therefore, projections for large populations tend to be more accurate than projections for small populations. Tying a scho.ol district projection to the county in which it is located takes advantage of this principle. Tl1e Shakopee School District is entirely in Scott County, which makes it a reasonable proxy for the district. However, as noted earlier, Shakopee City, the major population center of the district, qas population and household characteristics that are somewhat different from those of Scott County. Projecting kindergarten for the Shakopee School District is further complicated because the past is not much guidance for projecting the future. Kindergarten is a classic example of this challenge. T,he-district's kindergarten as a percentage of Scott County resident live births five years earlier increased during the 1990s. From Fall 1999 to Fall 2000, the ratio increased dramatically, suggesting that kindergarten was affected more by recent migration than by births five years earlier. However, Scott County resident live births increased dramatically starting in 1998, makinwit unclear whether the district's ratio of kindergarten to births five years earlier will continue to increase or whether resident live births are now more in-synch with future kindergarten classes. (See p. 36) The lpOst recent school census of 0-4 year-olds shows an increase of5.7 percent between 2002 and 2003. The 5.7 percent, when applied to the kindergarten of 2002, results in a 2003 kindergarten of 377. A ratio of kindergarten to births five years earlier of 25 percent yields a 2003 kindergarten of376. Based on the similarity of these two numbers, a low kindergarten assumption b)lSed on 25 percent of Scott County births was developed. If the ratio of 25 percent applies in the future, kindergarten in 2003,2004, 2005and_2006 will be 376,385,422 and 441 students respectively. If the future ratio of kindergarten to births five years earlier is closer to the average of the 13 . ~ past three y~fs'-it will be 26 percent. Using a ratio of26 percent to project kindergarten means kindergarten. classes will be approximately 15 students larger than with the 25 percent ratio. Using the 26 percent ratio, kindergarten in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 will be 391, 400, 438 and 458 students respectively. The 26 percent ratio is called the high kindergarten assumption. (See p.37) The Minnesota State Demographer's projection of Scott County 5-year-olds was used as a guide to extend kindergarten projections beyond the current birth data. Based on the age distribution of women of childbearing age, the number of 5-year-olds will grow more slowly between 2005 and 2010. The same rate of growth projected for Scott County 5-year -olds was applied to the kindergarten class of2006. This assumption results in a kindergarten of 450 students in 2010 using the low kindergarten assumption and a kindergarten of 470 students in 2010 using tJ1e.high kindergarten assumption. These kindergarten classes translate into 23.3 percent and ~4.4 percent respectively of Scott County 5-year-olds in 2010. In 2000, Shakopee's kindergarten was 20.2 percent of Scott County 5-year-olds. As these percentage indicate, the Shakoppe School District will become a slightly larger proportion of Scott County's population. Household p~jections support this assumption. Based on household projections, the district's share of Scott County households will rise. from 29 percent in 2000 to 30.6 percent in 2010. (See p.36) Kindrrgarten was increased by about 1 percent each year from 2011 through 2013, which is comparable to the increase in 5-year-olds in the State Demographer's projection. Based on this analysis, two kindergarten projection schedules were constructed. The low projection schedule is based on the 25 percent ratio of Scott County births and 23.3 percent of Scott County5-year-olds. Over the period from 2003 to 2013, this projection yields an average of 435 kindergarten students per year. From 1993 to 2002, kindergarten averaged 290 students. The high schedule (based on 26 percent and 24.4 percent) results in an average 14 kindergarten,class of 454, which is not substantially higher than the low projection, however, even this small difference affects the projections. As both schedules show, kindergarten is expected to increase throughout the projection period. (See p. 38) Net Migration Assumptions Shakopee public schools gained students through net in migration every year over the past decade. Early in the decade, migration added from 2.5 to 3 percent more students each year. Between 199,8 and 1999, net in migration was very modest (1.3 percent), but since that time net in migration :reached new highs. From 1999 to 2000, net in migration added 6.4 percent or 230 students and from 2000 to 2001, it added 4.2 percent or 166 students. From 2001 to 2002, the rate was back to 2.6 percent, however, because base enrollment was higher, the number of students add~ Via net in migration (112 students) was higher than in the early 1990s. (See p. 30). One of the advantages of the cohort survival method is that it makes projections for each grade. However, this requires migration assumptions for each grade. Analyzing the 1990s and anticipating even more residential development this decade, two sets of net in migration assumptions appear to best reflect the range of future net in migration. The low assumption adds about the same number of net in migrants per additional household as was added in the 1990s. This assumption adds 170 students per year. The total is comparable to the experience of2000 to 2001. Howeyer, this assumption contains only a modest attrition of high school students, a net loss of 15 stu.dents. Experience during this past year suggests this may be too optimistic over the decade given new options for on line learning and the many other pressures that affect high school enrollment. Base5i -on recent experience, the low migration assumption was modified by removing more high school students. With this modification, the net loss from high school is 30 students per year. This assumption reduces total net in migration to 140 students per year. Net in 15 . migration of high school students may still occur with this modification, but the modification assumes more students will opt out of high, school to pursue either other options or become drop outs. The bigh assumption adds 205 students per year. It is based on slightly faster growth or a slightly high~r student per additional unit assumption. The value of this assumption is that it most likely represents the upper bound of enrollment through 2013. Again, it seems prudent to temper the high school net migration. By assuming a net loss of30 high school students per year, total net in I1llgration was reduced to 175 per year. (See p. 39) All four migration schedules weight migration more heavily to K-5. This follows recent history and assumes the district will continue to attract relatively younger families. The high net in migration/assumption adds a few more students at Grade 9. This assumes that the number of transfers frqm nonpublic schools will increase over this decade. Both the kindergarten and net migration assumptions are smoothed trend lines. The future, like the past, most likely will be characterized by annual variation, sometimes substantial, around the tr,end lines. Because there is no reasonable way to forecast when variations around trend lines will occur, it is arbitrary to project them. Furthermore, long-term projections are designed to approximate a point in the future, not each intervening year between the present and the projectiop date. For this reason, long-term projections should not be used for budgeting purposes. Pr01ection Results Four.cohort projections were made based on the two kindergarten schedules and the four migration scl)edules. The lowest projection results from the low kindergarten and low net in migration with the higher high school attrition assumptions. In 2010, enrollment is projected to be 6,391. By 2013, enrollment increases to 6,842, an increase of2,355 students or 52 percent 16 from 2002. Shakopee's enrollment increased 59 percent from 1993 to 2002. The high kindergarten and high net in migration assumptions yield the highest projection. In 2010, enrollment is 6,832 and in 2013, enrollment grows to 7,388 for an increase of2,901 students or ~5 percent from 2002. While the low migration assumption and the high migration with the higher high school attrition assumption yield a very similar net migration total, 170 and 175 per year respectively, the assumptions,yield different results when coupled with the kindergarten assumptions. For example, tho low kindergarten/low migration assumptions result in 6,451 students in 2010, while the high kindergarten/high migration with the higher high school attrition assumptions results in 6,772 students in 2010. These projections differ by 5 percent or 321 students, indicating that tempering hi,gh school net migration produces distinct projections. Therefore, the projections with higher high school net out migration should be viewed as unique projections, not simply modifications of the two original projections. (See p. 40) Housing Unit Method Another method to project population and school enrollment is the housing unit method. This method is based on the number of existing and projected housing units and then applying a child per hou,sehold estimate to the housing unit count. In areas that are developing or growing rapidly, this QIethod is attractive. - Even in more stable environments, the housing unit method illustrates the number of housing units needed to accommodate a school enrollment of a specific size. While the number of housing units is related to population size, housing units alone do not determine population size. The number of persons per household is also important. Housing units are relatively easy to count or to obtain counts from tax rolls or utility companies, estimating persons per household and the child per household ratios is more difficult. The type of housing unit affects the child per household ratio. Detached single-family 17 . ~ housing units-usually have the highest child per household ratio. Attached single-family, such as townhouses, have fewer children per unit and apartment units tend to have the lowest child per household ratio. Hou~g costs affect the number of children per household. For example, expensive housing unit~ usually contain fewer children per unit. However, some modestly priced units also have a low child per household ratio. Perhaps as important, the value of housing almost always affects the age of children present. Units valued up to $350,000 are more likely to have younger children, espreially preschool children. Units valued at $350,000 or more are more likely to contain juniqr high or senior high school students. The child per household ratio is also affected by larger societal trends. For example, the aging of the Baby Boom generation in the next ten years will result in a large number of "empty nests." Becapse the Baby Boom generation represents 30 percent of the population and 40 percent of householders, the child per household ratio will decrease dramatically in this decade. The numerically small Generation X, the young parents in this same period, will further fuel the decrease in the child per household ratio. These..two trends are projected to decrease Minnesota's school-age population (5-18 year- olds) per ho~sehold by 16.7 percent between 2000 and 2010. In Scott County, the school-age population per household ratio is projected to decrease by 6.1 percent. The Shakopee School District has a remarkably low school-age child per household ratio given its rate of residential development.. - The reasons for the low ratio are the smaller proportion of households with persons under 18 and the higher percentage of young adults. Even though the ratio was low in 2000, it may fall because the overall pool of potential movers will have more 45-64 year-olds than 30-44 year-olds this decade. Iffuture growth brings more middle-aged people, the ratio of school-age cpildren per household will decrease. If the district's school-age child per household ratio decreases by approximately half the rate projected for Scott County, it would be 0.49 in 2010. (The decrease from .51 to .49 is a 3.9 percent decrease.) (See p. 41) 18 . " An e~ally compelling argument can be made that the school-age child per household ratio will not fall because it is already low. With such a small proportion of elderly and not much growth in that segment in this decade, the number of one person households in the district should remain smalL. The growth in one person households can reduce the school-age child per household r~tio very quickly. When an estimate of district households is available, the housing unit method is calculated as follows: Occupied hqusing units X School-age population per HH = School-age population School-age population X Public school capture rate = Public school enrollment (Then make adjustments for open enrollment) Household Qrowth Households increased in the district during the 1990s. (See p. 42) Based on school district data, the district is estimated to have 8,886 households (occupied housing units) in 2000. (The differe1J.Ce'between housing units and households reflects vacant units and units held for seasonal, recreational or occasional use.) Between 1990 and 2000, occupied housing.. units increased by 3,714 or 71.5 percent in the district. Most.households are in single-family detached units. These units are the most like~y to contain schoQI-age children. (See p. 43) Proiection Results Projepting via the housing unit method does not yield projections for each grade, but it provides an e&timate of the total number of students housing growth is likely to produce. 19 . . Base9.-on Metropolitan Council household projections, the Shakopee School District will have 14,731 households in 2010 and 21,603 in 2020. The Metropolitan Council has a history of underestimating the rate of household growth, so if the past is any guide, these projections are probably conservative. On the other hand, slowing the rate of growth is a topic of discussion in the city of Sl}akopee. The outcome of this discussion and successful implementation of slower growth policies, if that is the decision, is unknown. Thus, the Metro CouncWs projections serve as a useful guide in thinking about future growth. Basesl 'On Metro Council projections, 5,845 households will be added to the Shakopee School Distr:\ct this decade. When these additional 5,845 households are added to the 2000 household estimate of 8,886, the Shakopee district is projected to have 14,731 households in 2010. For tqe'housing unit projections in this report, the household count will be rounded to 14,730. Housing unit projections are very sensitive to the school-age child per household ratio and the capture rate. The large number of Baby Boomer households compared to the small number of Gen X house)lolds suggests that if the number of additional housing units exceeds 5,845 by 2010, the school-ape child per household ratio is likely to decrease more. If the school-age child per household ratio is 0.49 in 2010, a decrease of3.9 percent from 2000, 14,730 households would yield 7,218 school-age children in the district. If the public school capture rate is 80 percent, a decrease of 1.6 percent from 2002, 5,774 district residents would be enrolled in Shako pee public schools in 2010. If the district accepts 350 nonresidents in 2010, these students must be added, bringing total enrollment to 6,124. The nonresident students are for illustr,ative purposes. (In 2001,302 nonresidents were enrolled.) The district could decide to accept few~r nonresidents or decide to accept more. What if the school-age child per household ratio remains at its 2000 level (0.51) and the 20 . .. capture rate remains at its 2002 level (81.3 percent)? Then an additional 5,845 units would result in 7,512 schQol-age children in the district. A capture rate of81.3 percent yields 6,107 district residents in the Shakopee public schools. If 3 50 nonresidents are enrolled, total enrollment would be 6,457 in 2010. Other combinations are possible. For example, the capture rate could fall below 80 percent. Household growth could be greater than projected or it could occur more slowly. At this time, there are many unpredictable aspects to growth in the Shakopee School District. Comparison of Housing Unit and Cohort Survival Results By solving the equation in reverse, the housing unit method can be used to estimate the number of households that are implied by the cohort survival method projections. For this exercise, bot,h-school-age children per household ratios and capture rates discussed earlier were used. Using these different assumptions illustrates how sensitive the housing unit projections are to the school-age children per household ratio and the capture rate. The tJ1ble below shows that in 2010, the low kindergarten/low net in migration projection is very similar to the enrollment expected from the addition of 5,845 households, assuming a school-age child per household ratio of 0.51 and a capture rate of81.3 percent. However, the number of households is different. When the 0.51 school-age child per household ratio and the 81.3 percentppture rate are applied to the low kindergarten/low net in migration projection, the number of required households drops from 15,563 to 14,714. This latter household number is virtually identical to the projected household count of 14,730 in 2010. The 4igh kindergarten/high net in migration projection requires 15,633 to 16,537 households, depending on the school-aged children per ratio and the capture rate. The household projections clearly illustrate that this projection requires faster growth than the Metro Council is 21 . " currently projecting. However, this is possible given the Metro Council's past track record of underestima~ing the rate of growth in developing areas. Overall, the results of the cohort survival projections and the housing unit method projections are consistent. The low kindergarten/low net in migration with the higher high school attrition proj~ion appears to be a reasonable low projection. The high kindergarten/high net in migration.projection probably sets the high end for enrollment in 2010. 2010 Residents Open Housing Total In #720 Enroll Total Units Housing Method 7,218 5,774 350 . 6,124 14,730 (+5,845 units) (0.49) Housing Method 7,512 6,107 350 6,457 14,730 (+5,845 units) (0.51) Low K, Low Mig* 7,626 6,101 350 6,451 15,563 Low K, Low Mig** 7,504 6,101 350 6,451 14,714 High K, High Mig* 8,103 6,482 350 6,832 16,537 High K, High Mig** 7,973 6,482 350 6,832 15,633 *Based on 0.49 and an 80% capture rate **Based on 0.51 and an 81.3 percent rate 22 . . Summary By the end of this decade, enrollment will decrease in most Minnesota school districts. Shakopee public school enrollment will be an exception to the statewide trend. The analysis and projections in.-this report show the following: . Shakopee public school enrollment will continue to increase. By 2013, total enrollment may reach 7,000 or more. If enrollment is less than 7,000 in 2013, it most likely will reach 7,000 by 2015. After 2010, school enrollments in Minnesota and the U.S.,should start to rise again because Generation Y will be in its prime childbearing years. Generation Y, born between 1977 and 1995, are the children of the Baby Boomers. Immigration also contributed to the size of Generation Y, which means that the school age population after 2010 will be more racially and ethni.ca11y diverse than it is today; . The past does not provide much guidance because trends in Scott County births and Shakopee public school enrollment changed starting in 1998 and 1999; . Competition for students is likely to increase. Nonpublic enrollment and other form~of competition will result in a lower public school capture rate; and . The s~hool-age child per household ratio will decrease as the current population "ages in place" and more housing is developed to attract aging Baby Boomers, who will remain a large market segment. 23 . . SHAKOP~E SCHOOL DISTRICT YOUTH POPULATION 2000 %in 0-4 5-9 10-14 15""19 #720 years years years . years** Shakopee City 100% 1,832 1,713 1,374 1,166 Jackson T. 100% 115 114 102 100 Louisville T. 94% 100 150 127 103 Sand Creek T. 10% 98 119 136 110 Savage City 4.4% 2,569 2,297 1,847 1,153 Prior Lake City 2.7% 1,479 1,353 1,299 1,034 District Total estimate* 2,204 2,118 1,725 1,453 Average per year* . 441 424 345 291 *Estimates qased on the percentage of each minor civil division in the Shakopee School District. Data are for the entire mioor civil division. . **Note: This age group will be smaller because some 18 and 19 year-olds are in college, in the military or have moved elsewhere to live or work Source: 2000 C;:ensus 24 , SHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT WOMEN OF CHILDBEARING AGE 2000 15~19* 20~24 25~29 30~34 35-39 40-44 Shakopee City 574 728 1,071 1,141 1,019 782 Jackson T. 46 40 45 46 65 55 Louisville T. 52 26 25 58 85 53 Sand Creek T. 48 28 19 50 73 68 Savage City 532 309 789 1,377 1,459 997 Prior Lake City 515 297 577 795 871 744 *The majority of these women are in high school Data are for the entire minor civil division Source: 2000 Census 25 . SHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT AGE CHARACTERISTICS 2000 Median Age % Under 18 % 65 years + years Shakopee City 31.5 27.5% 7.4% Jackson T. 32.7 28.9% 5.9% Louisville T. 33.7 32.7% 4.2% Sand Creek T. 37.1 27.3% 9.1% Savage City 31.4 35.6% 2.6% Prior Lake City 33.3 30.3% 4.9% Scott County 32.7 31.2% 6.2% Minnesota 35.4 26.2% 12.1% Data are for the entire minor civil division Source:2000~ensus 26 . . SHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS 2000 Persons per . % Households with %.Households with Household Persons Under 18 yrs Persons 65+. yrs Shakopee City 2.66 40.0% 14.0% Jackson T. 2.95 42.1% 12.4% Louisville T. 3.31 49.0% 9.5% Sand Creek T. 3.01 42.9% 16.7% Savage City .3.10 57.7% 6.0% Prior Lake City 2.82 45.9% 10.0% Scott County 2.89 47.0% 12.2% Minnesota 2.52 34.8% 21.3% Data are for the entire minor civil' division Source: 2000 <;:ensus 27 . . SHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT MOVEMENT AND OWNERSHIP 2000 % Householders Who Moved to Unit Owner-Occupied In 1999-2000 In 1995-1998 Shakopee City 24.3% 34.9% 78.6% Jackson T. 24.1% 36.4% 91.5% Louisville T. 15.1% 27.1% 89.0% Sand Creek T. 9.1% 18.7% 88.3% Savage City' 20.2% 36.7% 91.4% Prior Lake City 17.8% 332% 87.4% Scott County 18.2% 33.2% 86.5% Minnesota 17.6% 28.4% 74.6%. Data are for !.he entire minor civil division Source:2000yensus 28 . . SHAKOPEESCHOOL DISTRICT PUBLIC. SCHOOL ENROLLMENT HISTORY. FALL Grade 1993 1994. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 K 249 213 257 260 285 281 316 334 346 357 1 229 247 224 266 281 273 296 342 366 366 2 234 220 252 233 279 311 284 349 357 390 3 210 240 234 266 253 284 319 302 368 364 4 229 209 247 245 260 263 . .293 345 3J6. 365 5 208 231 223 256 246 280 271 320 372 324 6 199 216 233 249 268 259 288. 286 339 361 7 226 211 220 245 257 273 264 305 304 358 8 212 233 217 226 243 260 263 278 312 310 9 .210. 257 262 246 . 250 .284 303 314 328 353 10 211 215 267 251 248 248 274 298 324 354 11 192 206 203 253 242 241 238 264 286 314 12 206 197 202 198 247 225 209 236 231 271 -. -... . . . ..- -. Total 2,815 2,895 3,041 3,194 3,359 3,482 3,618 3,973 4,249 4,487 Note: Enrollment data excludes Early Childhood Source: Shakopee School District 29 . . SHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT PUBLIC SCHOOL IMPLI.ED MIGRATION FALL TO FALL 93/94 . 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 . 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 Kto 1 -2 11 9 21 -12 15 26 32 20 1 to 2 -9 5 9 13 30 11 53 15 24 2t03 6 14 14 20 5 8 18 19 7 3t04 -1 7 11 -6 10 9 26 14 -3 4t05 2 14 9 1 20 8 27 . 27 8 5t06 8 2 26 12 13 8 15 19 -11 6to 7 12 4 12 8 5 5 17 18 19 . 7t08 7 6 6 -2 3 -10 14 7 6 8 t09 45 29 29 24 41 43 51 50 41 9 to 10 5 10 -1.1 2 -2 -10 .,.5 JO 26 10 to 11 -5 -12 -14 -9 -7 -10 -10 -12 -10 11 to 12 5 -4 -5 -6 -17 -32 -2 -33 -15 Total 73 86 95 78 89 45 230 166 112 Percent 2.6 3.0 3.1 2.4 2.6 1.3 6.4 4.2 2.6 30 . . SHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT SUMMARY OF PUBLIC SCHOOL IMPLIED MIGRATION FALL TO FALL . . 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 . K-6 4 53 78 61 66 59 165 126 45 7-9 64 39 47 30 .49 38 82 75 66 10-12 5 -6 -30 -13 -26 -52 -17 -35 1 Total 73 86 95 78 89 45 230 166 112 31 . . SlIAKOPEESCHOOL DISTRICT RESID-ENTS ENROLLED IN NONPUBLIC SCHOOLS Traditional Fall Schools Home Schools Total 1993 349 1994 349 1995 350 28 378 1996 391 37 428 1997 431 38 469 1998 483 46 529 1999 523 54 577 2000 565 48 613 2001 582 60 642 2002 651 82 733 Ratio ofNonpublic Enrollment to Public Enrollment 1993 2002 16.3% Rate of Change in Nonpublic Enrollment 1993-2002 Total . . . Traditional . 86.5% Source: Shakopee School District 32 . << SHAKOPEESCHOOL DISTRICT OPEN ENROLLMENT HISTORY Year In . ' Out J Net 1993 114 79 +35 1994 106 85 +21 1995 110 99 +11 1996 123 109 +14 1997 161 92 +69 1998 195 105 +90 1999 230 124 +106 2000 277 161 . +116 2001 302 194 +108 2002 n.a. n.a. . n.a. Note: Data cp-e for ADMs representing all nonresident students, not only open enrollment. Data are for the sphool year, not a single point in time. Excludes Early Childhood Source: Shakopee School District 33 . , SHAKOI>EE SCHOOL DISTRICT RESIDENT ENROLLED STUDENTS Shakopee Public . Charter Nonpublic Net Open Schools * School Schools PSEO Enrollment Total 1993 2,815 369 +35 3,149 1994 2,895 374 +21 3,248 1995 3,041 378 +11 3,408 1996 3,194 428 +14 3~608 1997 .. 3,359 469 +69 3,759 . 1998 3,482 529 31 . +90 3,952 1999 3,618 577 31 +106 4,120 2000 3,973 613 19 +116 4,489 2001 4,249 642 21 +108 4,804 2002 4,487 733 39 +110 5,149 *Includes non resident students; .butexcludes Early' Childhood Italic numbers are estimates NOTE: Negative net open enrollment must be added to yield district resident totals while positive net open enrollment must be subtracted Source: Shakopee School District 34 , , SHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT SCOTT COUNTY RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS Scott . .County Total 1988 .. 1,046 1989 1,070 1990 1,098 1991 1,145 1992 1,183 1993 1,202 1994 1,294 1995 1,246 1996 1,386 1997 1,342 1998 1,502 1999 1;540 2000 1,687 2001 1,763 2002 n.a. Source: Minnespta Department of Health 35 , , SHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT BACKGROUND MATERIAL FOR KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS RATIO OF SHAKOPEE PUBLIC SCHOOLS' KINDERGARTEN CLASS FIVE YEARS LATER To Scott County (B) Re.sident Births . . (K) 1988 23.8% 1993 1989 19:9% 1994 1990 23.4% 1995 1991 22.7% . '1996 1992 24.1% 1997 1993 23:4% 1998 1994 24.4% 1999 1995 26.8% . 2000 1996 25.0% 2001 1997 26.6% 2002 To Number of5-Year-Olds* Scott County 2000 1,655 20.2% 2005 1;888 2010 1,928 2015 2,142 *For 2000, the decennial census is reported. For 2005,2010 and 2015, the number of5-year-olds is taken from projections made by the Minnesota State Demographer in 2002 36 , < ,rSHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT PUBLIC SCHOOL KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS BASED ON BIRTHS AND 5-YEAR-OLDS .Based on Births Based on 5- Y ear-Olds I Kindergarten @25.0%1I @26.0%** @23.3%* @24.4°/ollll 2003 376 391 2004 . 385 400 2005 422 438 2006 441 458 2010 450 470 *Projections based on births are based on 25 percent of Scott County resident live births. Kindergartenin 2010 is 233 percent .of Scott County 5-year-olds. This kindergarten number is 2.1 percent greater than kindergarten in 2006, which is the same percentage that 5-year-olds increased from 2005 to 2010 in the Minnesota State Demographer's projection * *Projectioqs based on births are based on 26 percent of Scott County resident live births. Kindergarten ia2010 is 24A percent-of Scott County 5-year-olds. This kindergarten number is 2.1 percent greater than kindergarten in 2006, which is the same percentage that 5-year-olds increased from 2005 to 2010 in the Minnesota State Demographer's projection 37 r , SHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT PUBLIC SCHOOL KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS 2003 to 2013 J Fall Low* High * * 2003 376 391 2004 385 400 2005 422 438 . '2006 441 458 2007 443 461 2008 445 465 2009 447 467 2010 450 470 2011 455 475 .2012 460 480 2013 465 485 *Based on ~ssumptions on previous page * *Based on assumptions on previous page 38 ~ . SHAKO~EE SCHOOL DISTRICT PUBLIC SCHOOL NET MIGRATION PROJECTIONS Grade Low Net High Net In Migration * In Migration** 1 25 30 2 25 30 3 15 20 4 10 15 5 15 15 6 15 20 7 20 20 8 10 15 9 50 55 10 15 or 0 150r 0 11 -10 -10 12 -20 or -35 -20 or -35 Total 170 or 140 205 or 175 *The low Ilet in migration schedule adds approximately the same number of public school children per additional householdas.was added between 1990 and 2000. It is also similar to the experience between 2000 and 2001. At the high school grades, net migration is tempered in an alternative projection * *The high net in migration assumes faster growth. It also tempers high school net migration in an alternative projection 39 . . SHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT COMPARISON OF PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 2003-2013 Low High Kindergarten Kindergarten . Low Net High Net In Migration Low In Migration High with Higher Kindergarten with Higher Kindergarten High School Low Net High School High Net Fall Attrition In Migration Attrition In Migration 2002 4,487 4,487 4,487 4,487 2003 4,732 4,762 4,782 4,812 2004 4,978 5,023 5,078 5,123 2005 5,231 5,291 5,382 5,442 2006 5,504 5,564 5,707 5,767 2007 5,772 5,832 6,023 6,083 2008 .' 5,984 6,044 6,280 6,340 2009 6,175 6,235 6,516 6,576 2010 6,391 6,451 6,772 6,832 2011 6,556 6,616 6,977 7,037 2012 6,717 6,777 7,173 7,233 2013 6,842 6,902 7,328 7,388 . Note: Projections do not include Early Childhood 40 ~ > SHAf{OPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT PROJECTION OF PERSONS 5-18 YEARS PER HOUSEHOLD .2000 2010 Minnesota 0.54 0.45 Scott County 0.66 0.62 Shakopee School District 0.51 0.49 Change 2000-2010 Minnesota ..-16.7% Scott County - 6.1% Shakopee District - 3.9% Source: 2000 Census and projections made in 2002 by the Minnesota State Demographer 41 ~ , SHAKOPEE SCHOOL DISTRICT HOUSEHOLDS IN THE SCHOOL DISTRICT HH HH Est. of HH 1990 2000 % in # 720 .2000 Shakopee City 4,163 7,540 100% 7,540 Jackson T. 459 461 100% 461 Louisville T. 278 410 94% 385 Sand Creek T. 412 478 10% 48 Savage City 3,255 6,807 4.4% 300 Prior Lake City 3,901 5,645 2.7% 152 Total 8,886 A householq"is an occupied housing unit. Apartments, townhouses and single-family homes are all housing units Source: 1990 Census and 2000 Census. Assistance in allocating cities from the Shakopee School District 42 . SHAKOP~E SCHOOL DISTRICT UNITS IN STRUCTURE 2000 Total 1 Unit 1 Unit Mobile Units Detached Attached 2+Units Home* Shakopee City 7,790 4,716 1,547 1,484 43 Jackson T. 515 230 0 5 280 Louisville T. 388 347 3 6 32 Sand Creek T. 499 482 0 12 5 Savage City 7,009 5,905 577 512 15 Prior Lake City . . 5,794 .4,592 . - . 549 646 . .... 7 *Includes Boat, RV, Van Data are for the entire minor civil division Source: 2000 Census 43 Page 1 Shakopee Low Kindergarten Low Net In Migration Shakooee K (+Hdcp~ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th K-6 '7-9 10-12 K-12 total 2002 Actual 357 366 390 364 365 324 361 358 310 353 354 314 271 2527 1021 939 4487 02-03 Cohort 376 357 366 390 364 365 324 361 358 310 353 354 314 2542 1029 1021 4592 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 15 -10 -20 105 80 -15 170 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03-04 Est 376 382 391 405 374 380 339 381 368 360 368 344 294 2647 1109 1006 4762 03-04 Cohort 385 376 382 391 405 374 380 339 381 368 360 368 344 2693 1088 1072 4853 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 15 -10 -20 105 80 -15 170 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04-05 Est 385 401 407 406 415 389 395 359 391 418 375 358 324 2798 1168 1057 5023 04-05 Cohort 422 385 401 407 406 415 389 395 359 391 418 375 358 2825 1145 1151 5121 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 15 -10 -20 105 80 -15 170 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05-06 Est 422 410 426 422 416 430 404 415 369 441 433 365 338 2930 1225 1136 5291 05-06 Cohort 441 422 410 426 422 416 430 404 415 369 441 433 365 2967 1188 1239 5394 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 15 -10 -20 105 80 -15 170 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06-07 Est 441 447 435 441 432 431 445 424 425 419 456 423 345 3072 1268 1224 5564 06-07 Cohort 443 441 447 435 441 432 431 445 424 425 419 456 423 3070 1294 1298 5662 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 15 -10 -20 105 80 -15 170 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07-08 Est 443 466 472 450 451 447 446 465 434 475 434 446 403 3175 1374 1283 5832 07-08 Cohort 445 443 466 472 450 451 447 446 465 434 475 434 446 3174 1345 1355 5874 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 15 -10 -20 105 80 -15 170 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 08-09 Est 445 468 491 487 460 466 462 466 475 484 490 424 426 3279 1425 1340 6044 Shakopee v1-2002 dal 06/10/0310:05 '- .. " ~ Page 2 Shakopee L :fergarten Low Net In Migration K (+Hdco1 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th K-6 '7-9 10-12 K-12 total 08-09 Cohort 447 445 468 491 487 460 466 462 466 475 484 490 424 3264 1403 1398 6065 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 15 -10 -20 105 80 -15 170 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 09-10 Est 447 470 493 506 497 475 481 482 476 525 499 480 404 3369 1483 1383 6235 09.10 Cohort 450 447 470 493 506 497 475 481 482 476 525 499 480 3338 1439 1504 6281 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 15 -10 -20 105 80 -15 170 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10-11 Est 450 472 495 508 516 512 490 501 492 526 540 489 460 3443 1519 1489 6451 10-11 Cohort 455 450 472 495 508 516 512 490 501 492 526 540 489 3408 1483 1555 6446 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 15 -10 -20 105 80 -15 170 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11-12 Est 455 475 497 510 518 531 527 510 511 542 541 530 469 3513 1563 1540 6616 11-12 Cohort 460 455 475 497 510 518 531 527 510 511 542 541 530 3446 1548 1613 6607 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 15 -10 -20 105 80 .15 170 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12-13 Est 460 480 500 512 520 533 546 547 520 561 557 531 510 3551 1628 1598 6777 12-13 Cohort 465 460 480 500 512 520 533 546 547 520 561 557 531 3470 1613 1649 6732 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 15 -10 -20 105 80 -15 170 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13-14 Est 465 485 505 5151 522 535 548 566 557 5701 576 547 511 3575 1693 1634 6902 r I I I Shakopee v1-2002 data.qpw 06/10/0310:05 Page 1 Shakopee High Kindergarten High Net In Migration ShakoDee K (+Hdcol 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th K-6 '7-9 10-12 K-12 total 2002 Actual 357 366 390 364 365 324 361 358 310 353 354 314 271 2527 1021 939 4487 02-03 Cohort 391 357 366 390 364 365 324 361 358 310 353 354 314 2557 1029 1021 4607 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 15 -10 -20 130 90 -15 205 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03-04 Est 391 387 396 410 379 380 344 381 373 365 368 344 294 2687 1119 1006 4812 03-04 Cohort 400 391 387 396 410 379 380 344 381 373 365 368 344 2743 1098 1077 4918 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 15 -10 -20 130 90 -15 205 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04-05 Est 400 421 417 416 425 394 400 364 396 428 380 358 324 2873 1188 1062 5123 04-05 Cohort 438 400 421 417 416 425 394 400 364 396 428 380 358 2911 1160 1166 5237 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 15 -10 -20 130 90 -15 205 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05-06 Est 438 430 451 437 431 440 414 420 379 451 443 370 338 3041 1250 1151 5442 05-06 Cohort 458 438 430 451 437 431 440 414 420 379 451 443 370 3085 1213 1264 5562 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 15 -10 -20 130 90 -15 205 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06-07 Est 458 468 460 471 452 446 460 434 435 434 466 433 350 3215 1303 1249 5767 06-07 Cohort 461 458 468 460 471 452 446 460 434 435 434 466 433 3216 1329 1333 5878 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 15 -10 -20 130 90 -15 205 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07-08 Est 461 488 498 480 486 467 466 480 449 490 449 456 413 3346 1419 1318 6083 07-08 Cohort 465 461 488 498 480 486 467 466 480 449 490 449 456 3345 1395 1395 6135 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 15 -10 -20 130 90 -15 205 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 08-09 Est 465 491 518 518 495 501 487 486 495 504 505 439 436 3475 1485 1380 6340 Shakopee v2-2002 da 06/10/0310:14 .... . ~ . Page 2 Shako pee H' 'dergarten High Net In Migration K (+Hdcp 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th K-6 '7-9 10-12 K-12 total 08-09 Cohort 467 465 491 518 518 495 501 487 486 495 504 505 439 3455 1468 1448 6371 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 15 -10 -20 130 90 -15 205 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 09-10 Est 467 495 521 538 533 510 521 507 501 550 519 495 419 3585 1558 1433 6576 09-10 Cohort 470 467 495 521 538 533 510 521 507 501 550 519 495 3534 1529 1564 6627 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 15 -10 -20 130 90 -15 205 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10-11 Est 470 497 525 541 553 548 530 541 522 556 565 509 475 3664 1619 1549 6832 10-11 Cohort 475 470 497 525 541 553 548 530 541 522 556 565 509 3609 1593 1630 6832 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 15 -10 -20 130 90 -15 205 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11-12 Est 475 500 527 545 556 568 568 550 556 577 571 555 489 3739 1683 1615 7037 11-12 Cohort 480 475 500 527 545 556 568 568 550 556 577 571 555 3651 1674 1703 7028 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 15 -10 -20 130 90 -15 205 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12-13 Est 480 505 530 547 560 571 588 588 565 611 592 561 535 3781 1764 1688 7233 12-13 Cohort 485 480 505 530 547 560 571 588 588 565 611 592 561 3678 1741 1764 7183 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 15 -10 -20 130 90 -15 205 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13-14 Est 465 510 535 550 562 575 591 608 603 620 626 582 541 3808 1831 1749 7388 Shakopee v2-2002 data.qpw 06/10/03 10:14 Page 1 Shakopee Low Kindergarten Low Net In Migration With Higher H.S. Attrition Shakooee K (+Hdco' 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th K-6 '7-9 10-12 K-12 total 2002 Actual 357 366 390 364 365 324 361 358 310 353 354 314 271 2527 1021 939 4487 02-03 Cohort 376 357 366 390 364 365 324 361 358 310 353 354 314 2542 1029 1021 4592 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 0 -10 -35 105 80 -45 140 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03-04 Est 376 382 391 405 374 380 339 381 368 360 353 344 279 2647 1109 976 4732 03-04 Cohort 385 376 382 391 405 374 380 339 381 368 360 353 344 2693 1088 1057 4838 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 0 -10 -35 105 80 -45 140 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04-05 Est 385 401 407 406 415 389 395 359 391 418 360 343 309 2798 1168 1012 4978 04-05 Cohort 422 385 401 407 406 415 389 395 359 391 418 360 343 2825 1145 1121 5091 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 0 -10 -35 105 80 -45 140 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05-06 Est 422 410 426 422 416 430 404 415 369 441 418 350 308 2930 1225 1076 5231 05-06 Cohort 441 422 410 426 422 416 430 404 415 369 441 418 350 2967 1188 1209 5364 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 0 -10 -35 105 80 -45 140 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06-07 Est 441 447 435 441 432 431 445 424 425 419 441 408 315 3072 1268 1164 5504 06-07 Cohort 443 441 . 447 435 441 432 431 445 424 425 419 441 408 3070 1294 1268 5632 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 0 -10 -35 105 80 -45 140 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07-08 Est 443 466 472 450 451 447 446 465 434 475 419 431 373 3175 1374 1223 5772 07-08 Cohort 445 443 466 472 450 451 447 446 465 434 475 419 431 3174 1345 1325 5844 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 0 -10 -35 105 80 -45 140 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 08-09 Est 445 468 491 487 460 466 462 466 475 484 475 409 396 3279 1425 1280 5984 Shakopee v3-2002 dal 06/10/033:13 .., . " .. Page 2 Shakopee Lr iergarten Low Net In Migration With Higher H.S. Attrition K (+Hdco' 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th K-6 '7-9 10-12 K-12 total 08-09 Cohort 447 445 468 491 487 460 466 462 466 475 484 475 409 3264 1403 1368 6035 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 0 -10 -35 105 80 -45 140 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 09-10 Est 447 470 493 506 497 475 481 482 476 525 484 465 374 3369 1483 1323 6175 09-10 Cohort 450 447 470 493 506 497 475 481 482 476 525 484 465 3338 1439 1474 6251 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 0 -10 -35 105 80 -45 140 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10-11 Est 450 472 495 508 516 512 490 501 492 526 525 474 430 3443 1519 1429 6391 1 0-11 Cohort 455 450 472 495 508 516 512 490 501 492 526 525 474 3408 1483 1525 6416 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 0 -10 -35 105 80 -45 140 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11-12 Est 455 475 497 510 518 531 527 510 511 542 526 515 439 3513 1563 1480 6556 11-12 Cohort 460 455 475 497 510 518 531 527 510 511 542 526 515 3446 1548 1583 6577 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 0 -10 -35 105 80 -45 140 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12-13 Est 460 480 500 512 520 533 546 547 520 561 542 516 480 3551 1628 1538 6717 12-13 Cohort 465 460 480 500 512 520 533 546 547 520 561 542 516 3470 1613 1619 6702 Historical 25 25 15 10 15 15 20 10 50 0 -10 -35 105 80 -45 140 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13-14 Est 465 485 505 515 522 535 548 566 557 570 561 532 481 3575 1693 1574 6842 Shakopee v3-2002 data.qpw 06/101033:13 Page 1 Shakopee High Kindergarten High Net In Migration With Higher H.S. Attrition Shakooee K (+HdcD 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th K-6 '7-9 10-12 K-12 total 2002 Actual 357 366 390 364 365 324 361 358 310 353 354 314 271 2527 1021 939 4487 02-03 Cohort 391 357 366 390 364 365 324 361 358 310 353 354 314 2557 1029 1021 4607 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 0 -10 -35 130 90 -45 175 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03-04 Est 391 387 396 410 379 380 344 381 373 365 353 344 279 2687 1119 976 4782 03-04 Cohort 400 391 387 396 410 379 380 344 381 373 365 353 344 2743 1098 1062 4903 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 0 -10 -35 130 90 -45 175 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04-05 Est 400 421 417 416 425 394 400 364 396 428 365 343 309 2873 1188 1017 5078 04-05 Cohort 438 400 421 417 416 425 394 400 364 396 428 365 343 2911 1160 1136 5207 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 0 -10 -35 130 90 -45 175 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05-06 Est 438 430 451 437 431 440 414 420 379 451 428 355 308 3041 1250 1091 5382 05-06 Cohort 458 438 430 451 437 431 440 414 420 379 451 428 355 3085 1213 1234 5532 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 0 -10 -35 130 90 -45 175 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06-07 Est 458 468 460 471 452 446 460 434 435 434 451 418 320 3215 1303 1189 5707 06-07 Cohort 461 458 468 460 471 452 446 460 434 435 434 451 418 3216 1329 1303 5846 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 0 -10 -35 130 90 -45 175 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07-08 Est 461 488 498 480 486 467 466 480 449 490 434 441 383 3346 1419 1258 6023 07-08 Cohort 465 461 488 498 480 486 467 466 480 449 490 434 441 3345 1395 1365 6105 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 0 -10 -35 130 90 -45 175 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 08-09 Est 465 491 518 518 495 501 487 486 495 504 490 424 406 3475 1485 1320 6280 Shakopee v4-2002 dati )6/10/033:16 '0' . .. .. Page 2 Shakopee 1-1' 1dergarten High Net In Migration With Higher H.S. Attrition K l+Hdco1 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th K-6 '7-9 10-12 K-12 total 08-09 Cohort 467 465 491 518 518 495 501 487 486 495 504 490 424 3455 1468 1418 6341 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 0 -10 -35 130 90 -45 175 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 09-10 Est 467 495 521 538 533 510 521 507 501 550 504 480 389 3585 1558 1373 6516 09-10 Cohort 470 467 495 521 538 533 510 521 507 501 550 504 480 3534 1529 1534 6597 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 0 -10 -35 130 90 -45 175 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10-11 Est 470 497 525 541 553 548 530 541 522 556 550 494 445 3664 1619 1489 6772 1 0-11 Cohort 475 470 497 525 541 553 548 530 541 522 556 550 494 3609 1593 1600 6802 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 0 -10 -35 130 90 -45 175 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11-12 Est 475 500 527 545 556 568 568 550 556 577 556 540 459 3739 1683 1555 6977 11-12 Cohort 480 475 500 527 545 556 568 568 550 556 577 556 540 3651 1674 1673 6998 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 0 -10 -35 130 90 -45 175 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12-13 Est 480 505 530 547 560 571 588 588 565 611 577 546 505 3781 1764 1628 7173 12-13 Cohort 485 480 505 530 547 560 571 588 588 565 611 577 546 3678 1741 1734 7153 Historical 30 30 20 15 15 20 20 15 55 0 -10 -35 130 90 -45 175 Economic 0 0 0 0 Stu Choice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13-14 Est 485 510 535 550 562 575 591 608 603 620 611 567 511 3808 1831 1689 7328 I Shakopee v4-2002 data.qpw 06/10/033:16