HomeMy WebLinkAbout13.F.1. Set Workshop Date for First Avenue Discussion
I~. F. J.
CITY OF SHAKOPEE
Memorandum
TO: Mayor and City Council
FROM: Mark McNeill, City Administrator
SUBJECT: Workshop-First Avenue
DATE: January 13, 2009
Comment:
Introduction:
The City Council has asked to establish a special workshop for Tuesday, February 24th, to
discuss the future of First Avenue.
Background:
Discussions have been held recently between the Cities of Shakopee and Chanhassen
about possible improvements to the CR 101 Bridge, and how that structure and roadway
might be upgraded to become a year-round river crossing, with additional traffic capacity. .
The week of January 12th, Scott County hired a consultant to look at the future of First
Avenue, which is scheduled for reconstruction during 2010. Combining both issues-
impending reconstruction, and CR 101 river crossing improvements--indicates that the
City of Shakopee needs to make some determinations on the future of 18t A venue, and
adjacent land uses.
A preliminary study done by SRF for Scott County showed that improvements to the CR
101 Bridge will greatly increase the amount of traffic on 18t A venue, to the point that it
would be significantly over its capacity for the existing four lane roadway (see attached
report). Currently, there are about 17,000 vehicles per day (Average Daily Traffic) on 18t
Avenue. Without any changes at all to the CR 101 bridge, ADT's are expected to
increase to 30,000 by 2030 (for a perspective, prior to the opening of US 169 in 1996,
ADT's on this segment of roadway were in the 20,000 to 25,000 range).
With improvements to the CR 101 bridge as contemplated, ADT's will be 45,000 to
50,000. We see that as being unworkable for traffic flow, and for many types ofland
uses in the corridor.
If the City and Scott County are to continue to pursue improvements to the river crossing,
decisions need to be made in terms of what 18t A venue and surrounding land uses will be.
Obviously, working within existing rights of way, and accesses to and from businesses
will be crucial to consider.
At staff level discussions with Scott County, we have identified Tuesday, February 24 as
a possible workshop date to put these issues on the table, and hopefully get some
direction from the City Council. We recommend a 7pm start.
Relationship to Visioning:
This supports Goal D, "Vibrant, Resilient, and Stable".
Recommendation:
I recommend that the workshop be scheduled as suggested.
Action Required:
If the Council concurs, it should, by motion, establish a workshop for Tuesday, February
24th at 7pm to discuss First Avenue traffic and land use issues.
VtV law1i1
Mark McNeill
City Administrator
~.c ONSULTING GR OUP, INC... I MINNFAroUS
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E N .C ! NEE I<sl PLANNERS I D ES Ie N E RS MADISON
SRF No. 0086538 0240
DRAFT MEMORANDUM
TO: Lisa Freese, Transportation Program Manager
FROM: Stephen C. Wilson, Principal
DATE: November 19,2008
SUBJECT: TH 101 Bridge Traffic Forecast Assessment
As you requested we reviewed the forecast 2030 travel patterns and effects from various scenarios of TH
101 using the Scott County traffic model, which was modified to better reflect he alternatives considered
in the TH 101 Screening Study. Three model runs were considered in our analysis
. Base (no improvements to TH 101 in Carver County or Scott County)
. Four-lane Carver County (assuming a best-case interchange configuration at TH 101 and "old"
TH 212)
. Four-lane Carver County plus four-lane Scott County TH 101
Our analysis shows that increasing the capacity on TH 101 in Carver County, including improvement to
the junction ofTH 101 and Old TH 212 would increase traffic across the Minnesota River at TH 101 by
improving access to the ChaskalChanhassen area as well as improving connectivity to new TH 212.
Increasing the capacity of TH 101 across the Minnesota River to four lanes, would increase further
increase demand.
Assumptions
Roadway and land development assumptions used are consistent with those described in the Scott County
Transportation Plan. Most significantly, the land assumptions for 2030 are consistent with the
Metropolitan Council's travel demand model as of January, 2007. Roadway assumptions include the
adopted regional transportation plan, along with planned and programmed Scott County roadway
improvements. A 2007 study of TH 101 in Chanhassen concluded that a "central" alignment with a more
direct connection and interchange at the intersection with "old TH 212" was viable.
This analysis is based on generalized assessments of capacity, whiCh would need to be conf'rrmed
using more detailed operations analysis. This assessment assumes that any new construction would be
designed to accommodate demand.
Www.srfconsulting,com
One Carlson Parkway North, Suite 150 I Minneapolis, MN 55447.4443 I 763.475.0010 Fax: 763.475.2429
.4/1 Equal Opporhmity Employer
Lisa Freese -2~ November 19,2008
River Crossing Demand
Table 1 shows the 2030 forecast ADT on the TH 101 and adjacent river crossings. Expanding TH 101 in
Chanhassen alone would increase volumes on the TH 101 Bridge by approximately 2,100 vehicles per
day, the result of capacity limitations on the bridge. Expanding the bridge/causeway to four lanes and
making appropriate improvements to the intersection at the south end of the bridge would increase traffic
by over 22,000 vehicles per day (vpd) resulting in a forecast volume of 52,300 vpd assuming no capacity
constraints at the bridge approaches on the north and south ends. This value reflects a large unserved
demand between Scott and Carver Counties, which is consistent with previous conclusions in the TH 41
Study. While traffic volumes would be drawn largely from the TH 41 and TH 169 crossings, most of the
volume reduction would be offset by "backfilled" demand from other river crossings; the result of the
general river crossing capacity shortfall in the south metropolitan area. Consequently there is a net
increase in traffic across the three bridges in the immediate study area.
Table 1
2030 Forecast Average Daily Traffic at Selected Minnesota River Crossings
2030
4-Lane
4-Lane Carver/
Existin2* Base Carver Scott
TH41 16,500 25,000 23,700 22,100
TH 101 20,600 30,000 32,100 52,300
TH 169 50,000 120,000 120,000 113,500
Total** 87,100 175,000 175,800 187,900
* MnDOT 2007 Traffic Flow Maps
**Includes traffic attracted or 'back-filled' to corridor
Market for Expanded TH 101
The additional Scott County traffic using TH 101 consists primarily of demand to or from Shakopee, with
an estimated 13,000 trips (59 percent of the total). Of those trips, most (9500 vpd) would be expected to
come from the portion of Shakopee north of TH 169, with the remainder These are trips that generally
were taking more circuitous routes to reach destinations on the north side of the Minnesota River (45
percent in Chanhassen). It should be noted that a portion of the demand from south of TH 169
(approximately 1000 trips)come from south of Shako pee.
Demand from the TH 169 south of the Shakopee area is not projected to be a major component of the
traffic (3000 vpd). In general, those trips are better served by accessing the recently completed TH 212
via the TH 41 bridge. A more significant component of traffic would be previous users of the TH 169
river crossing, with a net increase of 5000 vpd increase on CSAH 101 coming into the Shakopee area
from the Savage, Prior Lake and Burnsville areas.
Lisa Freese -3- November 19,2008
+221000~ TH10l
Figure 1
Distribution of 2030 Net Traffic Demand Increase on Four-Lane TH 101 River Crossing
Affected Scott County Roadway System
Forecast (2030) traffic volumes will be limited by the capacity ofintersectionlinterchange control at the
north and south approaches to the bridge. The bridge/causeway itself is a two-lane rural design with very
minimal access. Consequently, its capacity can approach approximately 2000 vehicles per lane per
direction per hour. However, there may be capacity constraints at the approaches to the bridge. .The base
2030 forecast for CSAH 101 east of the river crossing is for volumes of 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles per
day. The estimated additional traffic on the east approach to the bridge on CSAH 101 is as high as 13,500
vpd, which could result in ADTs ranging from 30,000 to 45,000 vpd on CSAH 101. Traffic in this range
would generally be expected to approach or exceed the capacity of the roadway, pending on factors such
as access spacing and local roadway geometry. Additional analysis would likely be needed to determine
the impact on north-south collectors and arterials, in particular Spencer Street and Marschall Road.
Lisa Freese -4- November 19, 2008
2050 Implications
A test scenario was run using the Scott County 2050 model to determine whether the improved TH 101
river crossing would have a significant effect on a new TH 41 river crossing. For the purposes of this
analysis alignment "C-2" was selected for TH 41. Two significant findings emerge from the analysis:
. In this exercise, a new TH 41 River Crossing is forecast to carry 72,000 vpd. Of that volume,
14,000 vpd (19 percent) would be diverted from a four-lane TH 101 bridge. This indicates that
the market for a new TH 41 river crossing is generally different than that of the TH 101 crossing.
. The forecast 2050 volume at the TH 101 river crossing is 58,000 vehicles per day, even with a
new TH 41 river crossing. This indicates traffic demand exceeds the capacity of a two-lane
bridge regardless of the presence of a new TH 41 River Crossing.
Figure 2 illustrates the demand patterns for the TH 101 crossing and that portion of the TH 101 demand
that would be diverted to a new TH 41 crossing by 2050. The demand is better served by the TH 41
crossing, and logically would only be on TH 101 because of a capacity shortfall at the existing TH 41
bridge.
These estimates are based on an "illustrative scenario" ofland development for Scott County. It should
be noted that the TH 41 EIS assumed a 2040 population of247,000 for Scott County, whereas the 2050
scenario assumed 357,000. Consequently, direct comparisons to the forecasts from the TH 41 EIS would
be difficult.
......,..
- TH 101 Demand
Divprt",cl to Npw TH 41
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Figure 2
Year 2050 Travelsheds